Over the years, I’ve found both success and misery when picking NCAA Tournament brackets.
Some seasons, my bracket makes it to the Final Four in the contests I’m in and three times, I’ve been able to win some large bracket pools.
Other years, my bracket is finished before the Sweet 16.
The beauty of the NCAA Tournament is how much of a crap-shoot it really is. It’s both fun and miserable to deal with if you root for a team that has a good chance of winning the national title.
Still, crap-shoot or not, there are some trends to follow.
Here are some of those trends, along with a few tips in picking your games.These tips are good for both filling out your brackets and perhaps making a few bets or two on the side with a friend.
RULE 1. The most important rule in filling out your bracket - leave the emotional connection at the door.
Over the years, I've done well in several bracket contests simply because most of the competitors were dumb enough to pick Kansas, Missouri or their favorite team to win the championship. More often than not, your favorite team will not win a title. As good as KU basketball has been the past 20 years or so, KU's won one title. Kentucky has not won a title since 1998. UCLA has not won one since 1995 and Indiana hasn't won a title since 1987. Great programs go on droughts.
Missouri fans can hope Kansas loses in the first round, but don't let it translate to the picks. You shouldn't pick a bracket based on your heart. If you pick smart with your head, you could immediately finish in the top half of your contest just because there are enough morons who pick their favorite teams or their schools.
Odds are, some people will stick their brackets in their mouth by picking with their hearts and selecting their favorites teams.
2. Don't buy the recent run of mid-majors - talent still matters a whole lot in March.
A few quick stats for you.
- Of the past 32 national champions, 31 of those teams had at least one McDonald's All-American on it.
- Of the past 23 national champions, 20 of the teams had at least TWO NBA First Round Draft picks.
These two items would make you think that Kentucky, Ohio State and North Carolina are three pretty strong favorites coming in. The run of the mid-majors has been fun, but talent almost certainly wins out.
Pick mid-majors to pull some upsets during the tournament, but don't pick them to win a national title.
3. Don't dismiss conference tournaments right away, Part 1
Much is made from fan bases on how worthless conference tournaments can be. When looking back at tournament winners and Final Four teams, that's not exactly the case.
Here's the first point: Of the past 32 Final Four teams dating back to 2004, 20 of them won their conference tournament. This is good news for teams like Missouri, Michigan State, Louisville and Florida State.
Conference tournaments aren't always a big deal. History, at least since 2004, says other-wise. Tournaments are a good momentum builder for a team and they should not be dismissed as worthless.
4. Don't dismiss conference tournaments right away, Part 2
Let's keep this one quick. Since the tournament was expanded to 64 teams, no team has ever won the title after losing their first game in the conference tournament.
Teams can suffer upset victories in the conference tournament and still win the national title (both North Carolina national title teams under Roy Williams did), but if it's one-and-done in the conference tournament, a national title run is unlikely.
End of story.
5. Don't dismiss conference tournaments right away, Part 3
And finally, there's this: Since 1998, only four eventual national title winners did not win their conference tournament.
Again, that favors Michigan State or Missouri (there are other stats that won't favor Mizzou). More often than not the past 15 years, a national champion has also won a conference tournament.
6. Look at the previous tournament histories of the head coach.
Sub-title: Don't bet against Tom Izzo unless you really have to and don't trust Bill Self, Rick Barnes or John Thompson III.
Most head coaches never shake their label as a tournament choker and most head coaches who are considered "big game" coaches don't lose that label. Roy Williams is really the only one that's come to mind. After years of losing early in the tournaments, Williams won two titles at North Carolina and he's made two Elite Eights and an additional Final Four on the side.
Self and Thompson III have both lost to nine-seeds or worse the past two tournaments. Self has a ring and that's to his credit, but you have to consider his shaky tournament history before you put "Kansas" down on the final championship blank on your bracket. Self and former Missouri Tigers head coach Norm Stewart are the only two head coaches in NCAA history to lose to a #13 and a #14 seed.
7. Take a look at the point guards in the tournament and go from there.
There's no formula to this, but consider the great college point guards and decent NBA players who have made Final Four runs or won titles: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Mario Chalmers, Kemba Walker, Ray Felton and even Deron Williams going back to Illinois in 2005.
It's not full-proof - Chris Paul or John Wall never made a Final Four.
Again, though, you can't help but notice that many Final Four teams are money at the point guard position.
Examine the point guards of each team you're considering and go from there. If you look at the point guard position and feel good, consider picking that team to make a run.
8. Avoid the media darling leading up to the tournament.
Every year it seems, you hear pundits on ESPN and CBS begging everyone to pick a "dark horse" to win the title or make a shocking Final Four run. This year, it feels like that trend is going to Florida State and Louisville.
Don't buy it, even though that may go against my conference tournament points.
I'll use a few local examples from this.
In 2003, everyone was picking Mizzou to make a shocking run in their regional after taking a Top 5 Oklahoma Sooners team to the wire in the Big 12 conference tournament final, finishing off a great week in Dallas. Instead, Mizzou plays horrible against Southern Illinois to win by one and then came out slow against Marquette, only to make a comeback and fall short in overtime.
In 2006, after KU destroyed Texas in the Big 12 Tournament, everyone in the Western Hemisphere was practically picking KU to make a Final Four run with that young team. They lost to Bradley.
During Kevin Durant's lone season in Austin, many believed they would make the Final Four leading up to the tournament starting. They lost in Round 1.
Other recent examples: Maryland in 2004 and Pittsburgh in 2010. There are countless other examples out there, too.
There's a reason why Florida State lost nine games during the year. Yet, many are picking them to get to the Final Four.
It's possible, but avoid selecting the media darling.
9. Defense isn't necessarily everything, but it needs to be good.
Since 2003, Kansas is the only national title winner to have finished #1 in KenPom's defensive efficiency rankings. Meanwhile, four teams that finished #1 in the offensive efficiency rankings eventually won titles.
Yet, you have to play some defense to win a championship. No teams since 2003 has finished the regular season outside of #19 when it comes to defensive efficiency.
A few interesting side notes on this point:
- Missouri finished #1 in offensive efficiency this season. Before Tiger fans cheer too hard, there's this very bad item of news. The Tigers finished #76 in defensive efficiency. That stat alone should make you hesitant in selecting Mizzou to make their first Final Four in school history. They can out-shoot and out-score people, but odds are, they won't for four, five or six straight games.
- Kentucky, Ohio State and Kansas are the only three teams to finish in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Take that for what it's worth. Five of the past nine national title winners have done just that.
10. Avoid picking the dream final match-up.
Every year, we dream of a national title game featuring the two best teams during the regular season. This year, Kentucky and Syracuse were the top two teams in the nation 90 percent of the year.
Don't bet on the game happening, though.
The 2005 national title game between North Carolina and Illinois is the only instance since 2000 I can think of where we got the best game possible. Those two teams were clearly the best in the nation that year.
In 2011, Ohio State and Pittsburgh were considered the two best teams in the nation. That didn't work out.
In 2010, we were begging for a Kansas-Kentucky final game. Both teams lost before the Final Four - and KU lost before the Sweet 16.
Even in the year we got four #1 seeds in the Final Four, the dream match-up entering the weekend was North Carolina-UCLA. Kansas-Memphis ended up putting on a darn good title game, though.
It's possible, but don't look for Syracuse-Kentucky to hook up on the final Monday of the season.
11. Don't be a hero - pick only upsets where you can safely explain to people why you're picking the game.
I was guilty of this in years past.
Sometimes, we pick games and upsets with the following on the mind: "If this upset happens, I would look like a genius if I picked it."
Don't worry about looking like a genius - just pick it if you have a reason to do so. Don't pick the #15-seed unless you have a reason (or 17) to do so.
Don't pick games in order to enhance your reputation.
Pick games that are winnable for you and pick winners that can pile up bracket points.
